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Nuclear Safeguards Education Portal

Probability of Neutralization

The probability of neutralization (PN) is the probability that the response force will successfully neutralize the adversary . It can be obtained from a variety of sources, including data tables, tabletop exercises, computer war games, simulated physical engagements, or actual engagements. For a given scenario, PN is simply calculated using the following equation, where Nengagements is a statistically significant number of engagements and Nwinsis the number of wins.

PN = Nwins / Nengagements